The Cohen Group: News: Op-Eds: Failure in Iraq is Dangerous for All


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October 18, 2004 Monday

Failure in Iraq is Dangerous for All
The writer served as US defence secretary from 1997-2001. He is now chief executive officer of The Cohen Group in Washington, DC.

America's presidential judgment day is, mercifully, but a fortnight away. Tax and trade issues, jobless rates and healthcare costs remain important domestic factors for voters. The outcome of the election, however, is likely to turn on whether a majority of the electorate believes that George W. Bush acted wisely in taking the country to war in Iraq and whether John Kerry is better suited to provide the leadership needed to bring the war to a successful conclusion. Both candidates recognise that greater international support will be critical to achieving the goals of defeating insurgent groups and establishing a secure and stable environment in Iraq to enable the foundations of democratic self-governance to be laid.

Mr Bush's request last month to the United Nations that it aid coalition forces in Iraq was greeted with a polite but essentially negative response. The war, according to many members - including Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general - was and remains illegal. Perhaps if the president had made a modest effort to concede that some of our key assumptions in going to war were in error or remain in doubt then those assembled might have been open to persuasion. It is a debatable point, but at this time an academic one. Legal or not, coalition forces are in Iraq, fighting and dying. Like it or not, the war is not going as well as the president and others had hoped.

The boldness and sophistication of recent insurgent activity has called into question the viability of conducting elections in Iraq in January, as King Abdullah of Jordan warned Iyad Allawi, Iraq's interim prime minister, when he visited Amman recently. In addition, whatever their initial reaction to the arrival of coalition forces, Iraqis today largely view the US military presence in their country as an occupation force, and one that is failing to provide physical security or economic opportunity in significant areas of Iraq.

The US is caught in a difficult position at a dangerous time. We cannot win the struggle against the forces of ideological extremism without the support of the Iraqi people; and we cannot win the support of the Iraqi people unless we can demonstrate that we are going to win the struggle. While there are many courageous Iraqi citizens who understand the consequences of failure, the majority are unlikely to embrace a noble cause whose prospects for success are in doubt. Suicide bombs and savage beheadings have sent a bloody message to those who aspire to live in a free and democratic society.

Complicating the already formidable challenge in Iraq are the insults and barbs flying in the midst of America's elections. It is clear that we need greater military, moral and economic support from other nations if we are to prevent Iraq from sliding into civil war and anarchy. It is equally clear, whoever is elected the next US president, that such support is likely to be forthcoming only under two circumstances: first, if victory in crushing the insurgents is assured; or second, if our efforts are doomed to defeat.

It is not overly cynical to note that victory has the virtue of attracting the support of those eager to share in the spoils ofarich, vibrant and stable country. But ironically the prospect of a defeat for the coalition forces, accompanied by either a graceful or a grotesque withdrawal of US military forces, also holds the promise of persuading those who still believe that the war is misguided or unwise to join the effort. They need not help out of a sense of shared ideals or commitment to the transformational power of democratic institutions, but out of naked self-interest.

Thus far, the American people have been willing to accept the loss of their sons and daughters in Iraq. They remain convinced that the cause is worth their sacrifice. Their patience is durable but not infinite. If violence continues unabated, if the interim government is unable to provide essential security and services to the Iraqi people and if the prospect of victory continues to recede then the tide of public support will turn and the American people will demand that our forces be brought home.

The very prospect of a military retreat has grave implications for much of the region and virtually the entire industrialised world. Other states in the region would be likely to fall under the swords of the extremists. Instability would shake the markets, risk dramatic spikes in the price of oil and threaten the global economy. Religious zealotry would take root and flourish in areas well beyond the Middle East. Even those governments who objected to the war effort in Iraq would not find favour with the radical elements likely to be in control - as France discovered when two of its journalists were taken hostage in August and threatened with beheading unless France reversed its ban on religious symbols in public schools. The demands of extortionists may be multiple in number, but they possess a common feature - an ever higher price.

There is still time to prevail in the struggle to replace the law of rule with the rule of law in Iraq and beyond. Without the support of others, Muslim and non-Muslim nations alike, we will fail. Failure, if it comes, will cast a dark and violent global shadow.

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