News

March 20, 2007

By Li Xing and Le Tian - China Daily

Depend on dialogue to clear defense doubts

China's role in international affairs, especially its defense spending, has drawn the attention of the international media over the past few weeks. Some announcements made at the just concluded National People's Congress (NPC) annual session and the high-profile visits of Western experts on defense has intensified that attention.

French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie, former US Defense Secretary William S. Cohen and his erstwhile deputy John J. Hamre are some of the foreign dignitaries to visit China recently.

Cohen is the chairman and chief executive of global business consultants Cohen Group and served as US defense secretary from 1997 to 2001. He attended the China Development Forum hosted by China Development Research Fund in Beijing on the weekend, and met with China Institute for International Strategic Studies President General Xiong Guangkai. Cohen considers talks between US and Chinese armed forces utterly important.

Dr John J. Hamre, Cohen's deputy from 1997 to 1999, is now the president and CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He held talks with officials on Chinese policy research, spoke at the China Development Forum and met with college students. A session at the China Foreign Affairs University in Beijing turned heated as students asked him a wide range of questions on his "new international order" concept in the context of Sino-US relations.

China Daily talked with Cohen and Hamre to get their views on China-US defense ties.

More exchanges and dialogues is William S. Cohen's prescription to remove the shadow of suspicion between China and the United States over defense spending.

"It was my suggestion (then), and I still think it's really important we have the exchanges and it's important they become much deeper, more trusting and more sharing," the former US secretary of defense told China Daily recently.

Though he was in Beijing in his present capacity as a businessman, he had the opportunity to discuss bilateral issues with Chinese government officials, including former deputy chief of staff of the People's Liberation Army General Xiong Guangkai.

"We (Cohen and Xiong) discussed the nature of China's relationship with the US and with the rest of the world, some of the challenges China faces both economically and certainly from a military perspective how should the rest of the world see China's growing military capabilities, and how should that be viewed with expectation and apprehension," Cohen said.

"China is certainly emerging as an economic power, and it will grow as a military power (too) because it is modernizing its military. That's all the more reason why we need to have greater contacts with each other."

Cohen first visited China in 1978 when he was a senator from the state on Maine. The US delegation that included four other senators met with late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. Cohen used that visit to explore Beijing by riding a bicycle through its streets.

During his tenure as US defense secretary, Cohen reversed the trend of a steady decline in defense budgets, which had begun in the 1980s. That was also the time when he advocated stronger military ties with China. He holds the same view even today, stressing the importance of reciprocal visits as part of military exchange.

China and the US should "seek ways to identify areas of mutual interests and find ways to cooperate", he said.

"Taking one step at a time, let us reduce the suspicions, let's see (whether) there are areas of mutual interests There are ways in which our two militaries can obviously talk to each other to make sure there is no miscommunication or misunderstanding - because when you have two great military powers and they have a misunderstanding, the consequence could be serious."

The best way to reduce friction is to have more interaction, he said. "It's very important we continue and deepen them."

Referring to the recent increase in China's defense budget, Cohen said more disclosures and discussions can reduce the two countries' uneasiness over one another's plans and intentions. "It's all the more important because other countries are skeptical, suspicious or wary of what you want to do."

China raised its 2007 defense budget early this month to 350.921 billion yuan ($44.94 billion), up 17.8 percent over last year. Responding to international concern, the Chinese government said the thrust of the increase was to bolster the salaries and allowances of the serving and retired personnel.

More money is needed to improve the living conditions of the armed forces, the government said. Bettering drill facilities, upgrading equipment and improving troops' capability to fight a defensive war with the help of information technology, too, need more funds.

On the concluding day of the NPC annual session, Premier Wen Jiabao explained to reporters: "We have a defense policy that is defensive in nature The limited armed forces that China has are only to safeguard the country's security, independence and sovereignty. On this matter, we are totally transparent."

China's defense expenditure is still much less than that of major military powers, both absolutely and proportionately.

For instance, China allotted only 7.3 percent of its total fiscal expenditures to defense in 2005, whereas the figures for the US, France and Germany were 20.04, 11.41 and 9.2 percent, respectively.

That China's defense budget will grow with its economic development and international stature is quite natural. Even Cohen recognizes that: "China will continue to modernize its military" as the country's stature and participation in international diplomacy grows.

The hope abroad, he said, is that with its economic and military growth, China will become "more integrated into the international security environment" and serve as a stabilizing and positive factor".

Words have the power to lift haze

China's energy policy is high on John J. Hamre's agenda. That's not surprising because the former US deputy defense secretary's present business is to review global energy forecasts.

These reviews will "assess the geopolitical dimensions of global supply of and demand for energy", said Hamre, now head of US think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies. His present job has taken him to Chinese government officials, with whom he has been discussing energy issues. In fact, he gave a presentation at the 2007 China Development Forum on Monday, surveying the global energy scenario over the next 25 years and the risks and opportunities in it for China.

But Hamre continues to follow defense issues, too. He told China Daily that the heightened media interest in the country's military budget was raised at some meetings he had had with senior government officials. He expects more such discussions before he flies back home.

Though he refused to talk about the specifics of these meetings, he said open communication could help clear the cloud of doubt between China and the US. "China and the US both have a right to undertake preparations that they believe are important for national security. Any of us could take an action, however, which could be misunderstood or misinterpreted by the other and that could make the situation worse.

"The developments of the past month or so indicate that we need a heightened dialogue between our respective military establishments. More dialogues on our thoughts and programs would go a long way in answering important questions we have about each other. This is a time when greater interchange and dialogue would benefit both countries."

"Peace and development remain the general trend of the times and no major war is likely to break out," Premier Wen Jiabao said in a widely discussed commentary published in People's Daily last month.

Hamre also shared his idea about the existing international scenario, which is somewhat different from the Chinese mainstream view. Though Chinese officials and experts recognize the US as the sole superpower, in general they believe the global power structure is undergoing a change.

Hamre, too, sees a world with the US as the sole superpower but with strong regional "superpowers", such as the European Union, Brazil in South America, India in South Asia, and China and Japan in East Asia.

"We (the US) do not dominate in the regions where we are up against the regional powers." This configuration is "inherently quite stable" because "no one benefits by resorting to force", he said.

But Hamre is worried about East Asia because of its "structural problem" of having two "potential competitors". He said: "Historically that has been a formula for tension".

Some Chinese experts disagree with Hamre's analysis. "We Chinese don't like the word 'superpower'," China Foreign Affairs University President Wu Jianmin said. Wu does share some of Hamre's concerns over the region, though. He, however, thinks people in East Asia mainly aspire for peace and prosperity, and this desire can serve as a powerful force for community building.

The US and China both must be "responsible stakeholders" in the future world, Hamre said. "Hopefully, we will develop even stronger patterns of collaboration on the problems we share such as international health issues, pollution, crime, trafficking, drugs all of the problems affecting your society and our society. And we hope to find ways to work on them together in more effective ways."

"We really do want you to play a role with us and other major countries to set up an international system to solve the problems through diplomacy and tackle the international threats in a constructive way."

To illustrate how a country could contribute further as a responsible stakeholder, Hamre discussed China's role in the United Nations. During earlier UN Security Council meetings, he said, Beijing would make a decision on the basis of whether they were good or bad for China. "But the next question is what is good for the international system. That is where China didn't take the next step," Hamre said. "I think taking that next step is important."

Hamre acknowledged that China and the US have some fundamental differences in perspective. China "doesn't see the world the same way we do. So it's a challenge for both of us to have an open dialogue on the questions where we see a problem. China, however, may not see the problem the same way we do, and find some ways to resolve them together."

Hamre lauded China's efforts to resolve the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue, which he described as a fine illustration of Beijing playing a responsible role in world affairs.

The former deputy defense secretary's center cooperates on various projects with Chinese institutions, and through these links "we gain critical insight and perspective", he said.

"It is important to talk with Chinese leaders if we are to understand their perception of the problems and the reasons for the policy direction they are pursuing. We have found our counterparts to be open, constructive and very capable," he said.

And so can the countries that view China with suspicion.

Top